Insights from General Sir Patrick Sanders: Navigating Global Geopolitical Challenges

Considering the experience Patrick Sanders holds, this episode of the Money Maze Podcast contains amazing wisdom, analysis, and opinions regarding geopolitical events in the world we live in today!

Russia and Ukraine War

Sanders sees the war in Russia and Ukraine as not just about territory, but also an action that undermines liberal democracy and global cooperation. He believes Russia, and other countries such as China, Iran and North Korea are trying to play by a ‘might is right’ proposition, bullying their way to power.

“A well-trodden historic path…Russia believes that Ukraine is part of historic Russia. The problem with this is that if they are allowed to succeed, there are other territories Russia may seek to invade.”

It is for this reason that if Ukraine were to surrender, the ramifications could be immense for the West. Sanders strongly believes that the priority in this war right now for the Western world is seeing that Ukraine does not just survive the war, but win, and pose a considerable enough threat to Russia to force them to reconsider and keep them in check.

He explains that it will likely require great patience in holding out against Russian forces, it will come with a significant payoff for the Western world.

“Russia will be first and foremost most concerned about its capacity to have sufficient conventional deterrence against NATO, not just nuclear deterrence. Its economy will weaken over time, and we can exploit domestic frustration in Russia. And none of that will happen quickly. But it will happen.:

What has Russia Achieved?

This war is costing Russia vast casualties at the gain of very little land, which leaves them  weakened, and Sanders thinks it highly unlikely they will be able to consider other military ventures on the horizon in the medium term.

In a way, he explains how the Western world has been ‘deterring ourselves’ from helping Ukraine; we could have sent swift and decisive aid to Ukraine in the early stages of the war, which could’ve turned the tide quickly, but we did not, in part because of the fear of Russia’s threats, including nuclear.

Sanders described how Russia’s progress has been slow and stagnant, even after re-grouping & re-organising their economy to support a long term war of attrition. This was stated this in mid-July 2024, prior to the Ukranian counter-offensive in Kursk.

“I think they've taken something like 512km² in six months at a cost of about 120,000 casualties. That is not decisive. And there's no sign at the moment that they've got the competence to be able to break through decisively.”

How far is Putin willing to take this?

Russia and the Soviet Union have always had a history of winning wars using all means necessary, be it through asymmetric warfare techniques such as assassination or sabotage, which we are seeing occur in a more modern fashion by utilising deniable activities (such as via cyber attacks and sabotaging undersea cables).

Middle Eastern Conflict: Israel, Palestine and Iran

As has been the case for a long time, the Middle Eastern region has the potential for escalating conflict. The Israel and Palestine situation is difficult to navigate and has the potential to develop into a regional conflict, especially given Iranian proxies such Hezbollah in  the Lebanon .

Here too he suggests that the wider goal of economic prosperity and peace, and a continuation of the Abraham Accords, favoured by many of the Arab nations will require patience and the West should avoid trying to push too quickly to achieve this.

Sanders does not see Iran's economic influence as strong, but recognises its religious and moral authority in some quarters in the Islamic and Arab world (although he warns that the IRGC remains a formidable force, capable of surviving through regime change).

Iran has created a powerful network of proxy groups, which can cause widespread disruption, but can’t be utilised at will, given they have their own interests to protect. In his view, Iran is therefore more likely to continue in using soft power and influence to achieve what they desire and stay out of direct confrontation.

“There's no doubt that in the region at the moment that the issue of Palestine has re-emerged as the fulcrum on which everything pivots. And the prize, if we can achieve it, is Palestinian statehood, domestic stability for the Arab states out there, greater prosperity, and a marginalized Iran.”

China: Is Peaceful Co-Existence Possible?

Sanders thinks that the world needs China, with their increasing technological dominance & competitive pricing being a net benefit to all mankind. In order to exist with China peacefully, Sanders believes that we should focus on areas of collaboration with China to strengthen relations, such as through joint initiatives on climate change & AI.

To manage these risks, Sanders suggests we should handle China through engagement, collaboration on these common issues and avoid trade wars. This will allow China to feel respected as a global power and a country, mitigating the incentives they have to instigate geopolitical conflict, especially around Taiwan.

“We handle China through engagement, by finding common cause on issues like climate change and possibly the emergence of AI. We avoid trade wars, we avoid confrontation. We behave steadily and predictably. We develop, we sustain. We maintain this network of multilateral alliances and arrangements that we have in the Indo-Pacific. One of the ways that you might unlock this - and to give a Xi and the CCP a sense that they don't need to rush into a miscalculation - is to reaffirm the Shanghai Declaration; just reaffirm this notion of the One China policy, because then you're not forcing this artificial deadline of 2027 or 2050.”

North Korea

North Korea has been a less discussed topic in the media lately, but the threat is still existent, with the country supplying arms for Russia’s Ukraine campaign.

Sanders sees the dynamic of North Korea changing from a nation defending its regime to now seeing growth in its capabilities to be an offensive power, which provides a lot of scope for military miscalculation.

In the past North Korea only really had on key ally, China - a reluctant friend at best - but now we see the alignment of incentives between Russia and North Korea.

“Now we have this alignment of aims and this increasing integration of war economies between Russia and North Korea, but also Iran and China. And that's why I use this this descriptor of the axis powers. They are actually more aligned than the original axis powers were in World War Two.”

Where the Investing Opportunities May Lie

War spurs innovation, which inevitably provides opportunity from an investors standpoint. Sanders believes that due to the growing threats of war, countries will need to replenish stockpiles in weaponry and defense equipment to be ready to react and strike when necessary, but also that the world of warfare innovation is changing, especially regarding the development of AI.

This has implications for making warfare technology more lethal, such as improving the intelligence of drones. Sanders says that at the beginning of the Ukraine War, drones were ‘pretty dumb’, but he believes there will soon be swarming drones which will not require pre-programming, but which can cooperate dynamically and autonomously without human input (even when it comes to targeting). There will be significant investments in defense to develop these changes in technology.

Another area that Sanders believes there will be a key focus of development in is data and software. He explains that producing and developing hardware takes a very long time, especially when this hardware needs to give you a competitive edge. Given these long timelines, it’s common for the global threat environment to have changed once the new hardware is operational, increasing the challenges of defence procurement for governments. He believes it is essential that the Western world develop AI rapidly and leverage data to do so, to ensure we can have safe AI models, which may not be the case if competitors produce it, unchecked. AI is undoubtedly going to be a revolutionary technology, but without proper control of it and an understanding what it is capable of, it could also pose great risks to us.AI software is relatively cheap relative to hardware, and quicker to develop, which may make it a better option for Western governments.  

Cyber-crime comes in many forms, online cyber-crime, espionage and sabotage and also disinformation. Sanders believes that disinformation is actually one of the most impactful and dangerous. These attacks can have the potential to completely undermine people's faith in government and its institutions which are so critical to our societies. They can arise in many forms and can be difficult to detect and combat once begun. Sanders thinks this is becoming a more pressing issue as it is easy to perform and has widespread impact. Without big tech keeping on top of this along with intergovernmental cooperation, it could have long lasting and catastrophic consequences for society. This creates opportunities for cyber security firms, especially at the corporate and government institutional level, but may mean further regulatory constraints & costs for social media firms.

“Disinformation, I think, is the greatest and the most significant risk that we face. And it requires cooperation with the big tech companies, who are beginning to regulate themselves more effectively. But it is also going to require intergovernmental cooperation as well.”

What Advice Would General Sanders Give to the Young?

"Embrace audacity…You’ll achieve the most by pursuing being bold!"

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This article is written by Ewan Webb, who has completed an internship at MMP, a third year Industrial Economics student at the University of Nottingham. He is currently completing a placement year in industry for his third year of University and will then return to finish his final year of studies starting September 2025, he has a strong interest in finance and Economics, notably asset management.

All content on the Money Maze Podcast is for your general information and use only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. Money Maze Podcast content, including this article, is funded only by third party advertising only. We do however offer paid-for content on other shows in our network. Full disclaimer here.

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